The Institute for Government thinktank warns that Labour's overhaul of special education in England faces risk of unravelling as parents rush to secure support for their children before the system changes take effect.
The government plans to replace education, health and care plans, known as EHCPs, with more widespread support delivered in mainstream schools. The IfG analysis found that a "use it before you lose it" dynamic is driving parents to seek formal support now, ahead of the proposed reforms.
The thinktank suggests the government's timeline may be too optimistic. Labour has set 2030 as the target date for substantially completing the transition away from the EHCP system. The IfG research indicates this deadline could slip and the overhaul may take longer than planned.
The dynamic created by the transition itself poses a structural problem. Parents facing uncertainty about what support will be available under the new model have incentive to secure formal EHCPs under the current system while they remain available. This creates surge demand for the existing system at the precise moment the government is trying to move away from it.
The thinktank's finding suggests the government faces a tension between its timeline and implementation reality. Wider uptake of EHCPs now could strain resources and delay the shift to mainstream school support. Conversely, slower uptake could leave children without needed support during the transition period.
The Institute for Government analysis does not specify what changes the government should make to its plans or timeline, only that current assumptions appear at risk based on observed parent behaviour.