English councils predict special educational needs and disability (Send) support costs will generate record debts of £10bn by 2028, potentially creating what they describe as "catastrophic" strain on public finances.
The forecast warns of accelerating financial pressure. The government cleared more than £5bn in historic council Send debts recently. Councils now expect to re-accumulate that entire figure by April and double it by 2028, according to the warning.
The driver is a surge in applications for Send support in English schools. Councils predict this rapid growth in demand will lead to deteriorating levels of support if funding does not match need.
The Guardian reports the councils cite the combination of mounting requests and existing financial constraints as posing a direct risk to public finances. The specific mechanisms by which support might deteriorate are not detailed in the available material, nor is guidance from central government on how councils should manage the projected gap between demand and available resources.